Happy 40th NBA title anniversary, Sonics

As we reminisce today on the 40th anniversary of the Sonics’ championship, it seems worth also considering how close, or far, we are to a return of the NBA to our fine shores of Puget Sound. The remodel of the Seattle Center Arena is underway, likely to be completed in the second half of 2021. That will represent a major step in any possible return. An available building that meets NBA specs.

Because of the economics of how the arena was financed, and the revenue distribution expected once open, NHL Seattle ownership likely will be the only group that could feasibly own an NBA team playing in the building. As David Bonderman already holds a minority stake in the Celtics, and the Leiweke brothers have many contacts within the league, an entry path for this group is well established. But the group will first want to see the NHL franchise get established before taking on the work of integrating another team into the building and market.

Not the real banner…via @McAlisterDallas

So a possible scenario sees the NBA expand by two franchises, to 32 clubs, for the 2025 season. The current NBA TV contract with its partners runs through the 2024-25 season. Any substantial league changes would likely not take place until the contract is completed. A 2025 start for a new Seattle team would be four years after the start of the NHL club, giving the skaters a nice run to get things ramped up. The actual expansion announcement of which cities would be joining the NBA might arrive in 2023. So yes, four years from now we may hear Seattle invited back.

But, as obvious and emotional a choice as Seattle may seem for Sonics fans, the NBA may actually be looking at places like Mexico City (where a G-League team will soon be up and running), Montreal or even…Vancouver before considering another U.S. based franchise. Because while Seattle may be the most obvious of U.S. cities, the drive to grow revenues could lead the league to first expanding across the border. Mexico City will be the real prize, with the NBA in a race with other U.S. based major leagues to see who will place a franchise in North America’s largest market first. There are certainly hurdles for Mexico City, but by all accounts, an arena and multiple interested ownership groups are ready. The hope for Seattle fans will be that the city will be the expansion partner with one international market.

Expansion clubs are easier to integrate into foreign markets than relocated teams, so Seattle will be near the top of the list for relocated franchises. But as we’ve seen with Sacramento and Milwaukee, the league now prefers to do all it can to prevent relocation. Relocation also takes the timeline out of the hands of the potential new ownership group, interfering with both arena and NHL planning. The region’s options are limited if a team becomes available before the arena is complete. The Tacoma Dome likely become a temporary home. Most fans, living in a market that’s already lost two major league franchises, would be apprehensive to taking another fan bases’ team. But Seattle fans also know the opportunity to house these franchises seldom occurs. Interested ownership groups must be ready to act.

And that brings us to the SoDo Arena. As the only other known ownership group, they would theoretically be ready to jump at an opportunity, independent of the Seattle Center Arena and the NHL, but only with an assist from the city council approving an alley vacation. We are nevertheless still waiting on that, even with the Port of Seattle finally acknowledging what everybody knows; the nearby terminals are not critical for cargo operations. But it’s also difficult to imagine two arenas successfully operating in the 12th or 13th largest market in the country. Especially when they’re only 4 miles apart. So we have a very Seattle scenario. An arena is under construction while the best location for such an arena sits mostly idle.

What happens then? I’m tempted to say a franchise relocates to Seattle (irony would have it be the one currently in OKC) under the NHL Seattle group around the same time the NBA expands in the mid 2020s. But even though relocation rumors will pop up when the building is complete, I still find it hard to believe the NBA would approve relocation. There’s a slightly better chance Seattle joins an international market as expansion teams.

While the NHL Seattle group previously stated they’d make room for a basketball practice facility at their Northgate headquarters by adding floors to their building, that seems forced. Ultimately, the SoDo Arena property might work as a joint Sonics/Storm headquarters. The reasons for that are too many to mention here, but it might prove the start of a detente between the SoDo Arena group, OVG and the city administration.

Enjoy and celebrate today’s anniversary of the greatest moment in Sonics’ history. With some luck, we can begin adding more moments in half a decade or so.

We’ll be back…eventually